The Roberts Court and the Transformation of Constitutional Protections for Religion: A Statistical Portrait

Published in 2022, in the Supreme Court Review, 2021: 315-347.

Lee Epstein
Eric A. Posner

The Roberts Court has ruled in favor of religious organizations far more frequently than its predecessors—over 83% of the time, compared to about 50% for all previous eras since 1953. In most of these cases, the winning religion was a mainstream Christian organization, whereas in the past pro-religion outcomes more frequently favored minority or marginal religious organizations. A statistical analysis suggests that this transformation is largely the result of changes in the Court’s personnel: a majority of Roberts Court justices are ideologically conservative and religiously devout—a significant break from the past. We also explore other possible explanations

Click here for the page proofs (.pdf)
Click here for the data (excel files) (posted on January 24, 2022)

The New York Times reported the results of an earlier version of this study.