Is the U.S. Supreme Court a Reliable Backstop for an Overreaching U.S. President? Maybe, but is an Overreaching (Partisan) Court Worse?

Presidential Studies Quarterly 53: 234-255 (2023)

Rebecca L. Brown, University of Southern California
Lee Epstein, University of Southern California

Abstract

The Roberts Court has been called the most “___” Court in history, with many different adjectives being offered.  Surprisingly, our study of voting data from Supreme Court Terms 1937-2021 shows that the Roberts Court is the most “anti-President” Court in that period:  it has ruled against the President at a greater rate than any other Court.  Should we take this to mean that the Court will be there to protect democracy if an overreaching President tries to trample constitutional limits?  Not necessarily.  Additional analysis and a deep dive into the cases and reasoning reveal a more complicated picture, of a Court exhibiting historic levels of partisan and loyalty bias as well as a strong penchant for judicial supremacy.

Click here for the article.
Figure 3 in the paper shows the president’s win rate by Chief Justice era. This spreadsheet shows the win rate by president.
Click here for the data (.dta file).